This blog is written as part of the Ph.D. Coursework task assigned by Dr. Dilip Barad on the topic of Hypothesis in the Academic Research.
Part 1- The first session discusses ‘Hypothesis’ and its importance in academic research.
Etymology and Usage of "Hypothesis"
The word "hypothesis" in English is derived from a Latin root. In the 1590s, it referred to a kind of particular statement and by 1650s, it was used in connection with a proposition that is assumed and taken for granted, used as a premise in research work. It comes from the French "hypothèse", Latin "hypothesis", or Greek "hypothesis".
Looking at the etymology from Greek, which means the base or groundwork, indicates that writing a hypothesis requires groundwork and foundation work for research. Literally, "hypo" means placing under something or placing before something. "Hypo" (under) and "thesis" (placing a proposition) together suggest placing a proposition under something. The etymology suggests there is a kind of research problem within which we try to make our hypothesis.
Current Usage and Definition
In common usage in the 21st century, a hypothesis refers to a provisional idea whose merit requires evaluation. So anything stated as a hypothesis requires evaluation and cannot be accepted as a statement of fact without it. For proper evaluation, the framer of a hypothesis needs to define specifics in operational terms, requiring variables. A hypothesis requires more work by the researcher to either confirm or disapprove it. This includes more research work, observations, field work, literature review, etc..
A confirmed hypothesis may become a theory or occasionally grow to become a theory. It is not a theory now, but can be accepted if proven in a proper context.
Definition
A common definition is that ‘a hypothesis is an educated guess or prediction about a relationship between variables.’
The term "educated guess" implies scientific thinking, it is not based on mere assumptions. It is well thought, questioned, and examined. The prediction is based on research observations and literature review. A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested through scientific research. Scientific research requires testing, so a hypothesis is falsifiable. In scientific research, a hypothesis is used to make predictions about what will happen under certain conditions. Hypotheses are tested or verifiable under different conditions; different conditions may lead to different conclusions about a hypothesis. Hypotheses are about the relationship between variables. A variable can be considered a quantity which assumes a variety of values in a particular problem.
There are three main variables:
Independent variable: What you can decide to change in an experiment.
Dependent variable: What you observe or measure.
Controlled variables: Things you keep the same that do not change.
Variables decide the simplicity or complexity of the hypothesis statement.
What a Hypothesis is NOT?
A hypothesis is not a fact or a proven theory. A fact like "sun rises in the East" is not a hypothesis because it's not verifiable further or changeable. It is simply a starting point for further investigation. If research results do not support the hypothesis, it may need to be revised or abandoned. A hypothesis is not a question statement. While connected to a research question and possibly emerging from it, there is a clear difference.
Richard Feynman, Ray Hillborn, and Mark observe that, A scientific hypothesis is not the same as a scientific theory. A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further research. It begins with an educated guess or a thought.
Functions of Hypothesis
A hypothesis shall bring clarity to the research problem. It helps move from vagueness or fog around the problem. It provides a study with focus. It tells us what specific aspects to investigate. It informs what data to collect and what not to collect, preventing wasted time on unnecessary data collection. It will enhance objectivity or neutrality. It enables the researcher to conclude specifically what is true or what is false.
Falsifiability and Verificationism Proposed by Karl Popper
Falsifiability is a standard for evaluating scientific theories and hypotheses, introduced by philosopher of science Karl Popper in "The Logic of Scientific Discovery". He proposed it as a solution to the problems of induction and demarcation. A theory or hypothesis is falsifiable or refutable if it can be logically contradicted by an empirical test. The empirical test must be potentially executable with existing technologies or ways of looking at things. Technology changes over time, strengthening empirical observations.
Verificationism, also known as the verification principle or verifiability criteria of meaning, is a philosophical doctrine. It maintains that only statements that are empirically verifiable (verifiable through the senses) are cognitively meaningful. Otherwise, they are considered truths of logic (tautology). Verificationism rejects statements related to metaphysics, theology, ethics, and aesthetics as cognitively meaningless under this criterion. Quantitative research hypotheses may pass under this criterion because they use data and statistical analysis leading to objective conclusions. Qualitative research hypotheses may find problems under this criterion because they are often not empirically verifiable or their truths are logical/tautological.
Part 2
This session focuses on the purpose, analysis, and difference pertaining to hypothesis and research questions within the context of quantitative research and qualitative research.
The content draws on an article published in a Korean medical science journal titled "A practical guide to writing quantitative and qualitative research questions and hypothesis in scholarly articles".
Purpose of Hypothesis in Qualitative vs. Quantitative Research
Analysis in Qualitative vs. Quantitative Research
The approach to analysis differs between the two research types.
Research Questions vs. Research Hypothesis
Part 3
Characteristics of Good Research Questions:
Excellent research questions are specific and focused. They try to integrate collective data and observations to confirm or refute the subsequent hypothesis.
A good hypothesis has several characteristics:
Is empirically testable.
Is backed by preliminary evidence.
Is testable by ethical research.
Is based on original ideas.
Has evidence-based logical reasoning.
Can be predicted.
Types of Research Questions and Hypothesis: Quantitative vs. Qualitative:
There is a clear distinction between quantitative and qualitative research regarding the number and types of questions and hypotheses. Quantitative research typically has fewer types of research questions but many types of quantitative research hypotheses. There are three types of quantitative research questions and almost a dozen types of quantitative research hypotheses. While on the other hand Qualitative research typically has many types of research questions but only one type of qualitative research hypothesis. There are almost a dozen types of qualitative research questions and just one hypothesis type and that is Hypothesis generating.
Quantitative Research Questions and Hypothesis
Qualitative Research Questions and Hypothesis
Part 4: This Session is focused on Framework, General Flow, and Algorithm
Framework for Developing Research Questions and Hypothesis:
A primary criterion to apply is the FINER criteria. Your research question and hypothesis should pass this test.
FINER stands for: Feasible, Interesting, Novel, Ethical, Relevant
Other frameworks can also be used, such as
PICO(T): Population, Intervention or indicator being studied, Comparison group, Outcome of interest, Time frame of the study. This moves from population/problem to intervention, comparison, outcome, and time frame.
PEO: Population being studied, Exposure to pre-existing conditions, Outcome of interest.
FINER Maps, which incorporates additional aspects.
It stands for: Feasibility, Interesting, Novel, Ethical, Relevant, Manageable, Appropriate, Potential value/Publishable, Systematic
This framework helps assess how feasible to systematic your research question or hypothesis is.
General flow for constructing effective research questions and hypotheses prior to conducting research
Algorithm for building research question and hypothesis in qualitative research